Grim look at grad rates

[George Sheridan <learn@jps.net>]

Grim look at grad rates
Senior classes in the region shrank 11.6 percent during the school year 
that ended in June.
By Laurel Rosenhall -- Bee Staff Writer
Published Tuesday, July 4, 2006
Story appeared on Page A1 of The Bee


Setting it straight: A story on Page A1 Tuesday incorrectly stated the 
number of students who disappeared from the region's public schools between 
the fall of 2002 and the spring of 2006 as 28,509. That is the number of 
students enrolled in the ninth grade in the fall of 2002 in Sacramento, El 
Dorado, Placer and Yolo counties. The difference between the class size 
then and the class size in the spring of 2006 is 6,911, as accurately 
reported in a chart that accompanied the story. The story also referred to 
an Education Week report that was published in June, not July.

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More than 2,800 Sacramento region 12th-graders who started the 2005-06 year 
with their class disappeared from public schools by June.

Every year some seniors move, some graduate early and others are held back 
to 11th grade. But the vast majority of students who leave during their 
senior year are essentially dropping out, according to area educators.

Most seniors who leave school do so because they're so far behind in 
credits they won't be able to graduate with their class, school officials 
said, explaining the 11.6 percent drop in 12th-grade enrollment in 
Sacramento, El Dorado, Placer and Yolo counties.

The numbers emerged from public records act requests from The Bee.

Senior class attrition is one slice of the dropout problem facing high 
schools throughout California and the nation. The attrition rate is much 
larger when the count considers how much a class shrinks through four years 
of high school.

From the fall of their freshman year to the end of what should have been 
their senior year, 28,509 students in the class of 2006 disappeared from 
the public schools of Sacramento, El Dorado, Placer and Yolo counties, 
according to state and district enrollment data.

That works out to a 51 percent drop in class size in the Grant Joint Union 
High School District, a 39 percent drop in the Sacramento City Unified 
School District and a 23 percent drop in the San Juan Unified School 
District over the four-year period. Overall in the four-county region, the 
class of 2006 decreased by 24 percent over the last four years.

"We do have students who you just lose. You don't know why they leave," 
said Linda Martin, an associate superintendent in the San Juan district. "I 
really wish we could have an exit interview with every student to 
understand why they're leaving."

Local educators said the new exit exam graduation requirement this year 
didn't make much difference in the number of dropouts -- seniors left 
school at the same rate this year as they have in the past, they said.

"I don't think it's anything different than 25 years ago," said Bob Mange, 
who just retired from a 35-year career in the Folsom Cordova Unified School 
District. "Kids do move and some drop out; I'm not debating that issue."

Problem difficult to track

California has not completed a data system that follows students throughout 
their education. So when students leave school, officials can't accurately 
track whether they enroll in another school, take a high school equivalency 
exam or discontinue their education.

The lack of reliable data has led researchers and state officials to 
different conclusions about how many students finish school. A Harvard 
University study last year reported a 71 percent graduation rate in 
California -- far lower than the 87 percent graduation rate reported by the 
state. The study's figures were even dimmer for Latino and African American 
students, who graduate at a rate of 60 and 57 percent, respectively, 
according to the study by the Harvard Civil Rights Project.

A study released earlier this month by Education Week says that the 
graduation rate nationwide is 70 percent, meaning 1.2 million students who 
started high school as part of the class of 2006 did not toss graduation 
caps with their peers this spring.

Nationwide, most students who drop out do so in the ninth grade, according 
to the Education Week report. In California, however, most dropouts leave 
during 11th grade, said Christopher Swanson, author of the Education Week 
report.

By the time students start their senior year, most of their peers who were 
likely to drop out already did. Still, attrition doesn't stop during 12th 
grade. Some schools in the Sacramento region -- including Luther Burbank 
and Sheldon high schools -- lost more than 100 seniors during the 2005-06 
year, according to data The Bee collected from area school districts.

And every district in the region -- except the tiny districts of Esparto in 
Yolo County and Center in Sacramento County -- lost seniors this year. That 
was true even in high-growth areas like Folsom, Elk Grove and Natomas, 
where new home construction brings hundreds of new families into the 
schools each year.

Patterns not surprising

The pattern didn't surprise area educators.

"I think we should maybe be lucky that we kept them so long. In some 
schools they probably lose them earlier," said Christine Hikido, director 
of research and evaluation for the Elk Grove Unified School District, where 
the senior class dropped by 390 students -- or 9.5 percent in the last 
school year.

Folsom Cordova Unified School District lost seniors at a similar rate this 
year -- about 10 percent, or 113 students.

"When you look at all the options, I don't think that's a huge percentage 
of kids," said Mange, Folsom Cordova Unified's director of research.

Those who study the dropout problem are frustrated that school officials 
have become so used to losing their students before they graduate.

"It's really sad that that's the mentality," said Russell Rumberger, an 
education professor at UC Santa Barbara.

"They just accept it as a status quo instead of saying, 'Our goal in life 
is to keep every kid here.' They don't think that way because they're not 
set up to do it and they don't have the resources."

More counselors would be one way to curb the dropout rate, Rumberger said. 
Students respond well to a "counselor advocate" approach in which adults 
keep close track of their progress and hold students accountable for 
getting their work done, he said.

Instead, most schools use what Rumberger called a "mass production model" 
that works like this: " 'We have classes, you sign up, you come, you 
graduate,' " he said.

"Schools are designed for the kids who want to be there," Rumberger added. 
"They're not designed for the kids who need extra support."

Redesigning strategies

David Gordon, superintendent of schools for Sacramento County, disagrees. 
He said the region's schools provide students many opportunities for success.

"High school people give an awful lot of support and there are always 
summer school programs and continuation schools, which are very caring and 
responsive," Gordon said.

Many districts are trying to curb the dropout rate. Sacramento City Unified 
has opened several new small high schools of fewer than 500 students, 
designed to foster supportive relationships between teenagers and adults.

The district also created "small learning communities" within large high 
schools so students go through their education clustered in more intimate 
settings.

San Juan Unified is considering a district redesign geared in part to 
making high school courses more relevant to students, said Martin, the 
associate superintendent. She said one idea is to focus more on technology 
and career preparation. Another is to give each high school a specific 
theme and allow students to choose the program that interests them.

San Juan officials also are looking at expanding the use of "advisory" 
periods -- which work as beefed-up homerooms in which teachers talk with 
students about their academic progress and goals.

Martin said more than half the difference in San Juan's fall and spring 
12th-grade enrollment -- 480 of the 743 seniors -- graduated midyear.

In the Roseville Joint Union High School District, 146 of the 269 seniors 
who left early did so as early graduates, said Assistant Superintendent 
Steven Lawrence.

Work ethic is questioned

Sacramento county chief Gordon said many students who leave because they're 
behind in credits have not put in the effort necessary to succeed. 
California's high academic standards have led to tough courses that require 
students to work harder, he said.

"It's there because we want the kids to be successful, not because we want 
to kick them to the curb and make them dropouts," Gordon said.

He added that many who leave school without graduating go on to take the 
General Educational Development test or the California High School 
Proficiency Exam.

But for researchers and advocates, those students still reflect a failure 
of the education system.

"If a student is leaving high school without a credential and going to get 
a GED, they would be a dropout," said Swanson, the Education Week researcher.

"We have to be careful when we talk about GEDs," he said.

"They're not as beneficial as regular credentials."

*


George Sheridan